Nawaz Sharif’s return has thrown the Pakistani political field wide open. To my mind it is quite clear that the centre right conservative Punjabi vote is being organized against Benazir’s centrist or slightly left People’s Party. PPP still is the only truly federal Pakistani party i.e. has dedicated voters in all four provinces of the country… whereas Nawaz Sharif is at the heart of it a Punjabi politician who can, when he wants to, make alliances with significant ethnic forces (like the ANP) to solidify his power base.
One of two things is bound to happen:
1. Reconciliation between Ch. Shujaat and Nawaz Sharif and the reunification of the so called “Pakistan Muslim League” (the Punjabi Jatt Kashmiri Arain Alliance in reality) and its voters. This will help this alliance carry Punjab and thereby stop Benazir Bhutto from having a free hand in the government. The way Nawaz Sharif has been brought back is a clear indicator that such an alliance is on the cards.
2. BB-NS alliance for the restoration of democracy. Ideal for Pakistan, this is however highly unlikely. Nawaz Sharif has come back to Pakistan with a clear understanding with Musharraf. A BB-NS alliance would mean that the “PML” vote would split and PPP would have a clear majority with NS as a small time partner. The alliance would break up but in the short run has the potential of delivering Pakistan a democratic constitutional set up.
The more likely is option 1. This means the following electorally:
1. PPP scores between 80 to 100 legislative seats.
2. The reunited PML scores between 80-120 seats.
3. MMA scores about 20-30 seats.
4. MQM wins 10-15 seats.
5. Ethnic groups and smaller parties 10-20 seats.
A largely hung parliament with Benazir marginalized seems to be the course Musharraf is opting for. A government – along the same lines as the previous government- will take oath led by PML under Musharraf. PPP will form the main opposition to the government.
The upshot ofcourse would be the infighting between the so called PML. The party is deeply divided along caste lines i.e. Jatt v. Arain and Kashmiris. It is quite possible that there may be a mid-term change in government within the house with the PPP riding in power some time in the next five years.
